Just How Good Is Shaun Marcum?

There’s been a ton of talk about the Brewers’ addition of Zack Greinke this offseason, and that is warranted. Greinke is a special talent, and I cannot wait to see him on the mound – especially when the games start to count.

That right arm is good for something other than throwing a baseball.

However, it seems like Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee’s other big offseason acquisition, isn’t getting the credit he deserves. After all, Marcum had a better season than Greinke last year – he even had a better season, by most measures, than Yovani Gallardo, yet almost everyone pencils him into the rotation as the third best pitcher on the staff. So, I started wondering how Shaun Marcum compares to some of the other pitchers around the league, and whether or not we should be expecting more of him than just being a very good third starter.

We’ll start with Marcum’s statistics. In 2010, in the brutal AL East, Marcum went 13-8 in 31 starts with a 3.64 ERA, 114 ERA+, 1.147 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 as a 28 year old coming off of Tommy John surgery. The season before he had Tommy John, 2008, saw him go 9-7 in 25 starts with a 3.39 ERA, 125 ERA+, 1.163 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9. So, combined, in 2008 and 2010, Marcum is 22-15 with a 3.53 ERA, 119 ERA+, 1.154 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

Interestingly enough, baseball-reference.com lists Yovani Gallardo as Marcum’s top comparable. In Gallardo’s last two seasons, he is 27-19 with a 3.79 ERA, 107 ERA+, 1.341 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. Gallardo’s K/9 and BB/9 are both a bit higher than Marcum’s, so we’ll look at K/BB ratio: Marcum is at 3.10 in his last two seasons, Gallardo is at 2.39.

Statistically speaking, it seems pretty clear that Marcum’s last two years have been better than Yovani Gallardo’s. Yes, Gallardo gets more strikeouts, but he is not nearly as good at keeping men off base and therefore gives up more runs.

I got a little curious so I looked up stats for a few other big name pitchers throughout MLB and made a little table, with the stats from last two years as starters: